| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Missouri State | 50-0 | 1748.2 | +114.2 | 1862.3 | 96.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Arizona State | 48-20 | 1862.3 | +20.9 | 1883.2 | 77.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Kentucky | 21-31 | 1883.2 | -92.6 | 1790.6 | 91.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | LSU | 6-35 | 1790.6 | -50.5 | 1740.1 | 53.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Arkansas | 34-7 | 1740.1 | +19.1 | 1759.1 | 79.2% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Missouri | 6-27 | 1759.1 | -28.4 | 1730.7 | 53.5% |